Friday, April 30, 2010

"NEVERS" In the Market


Never panick. Never Fear. Never worry. You can be cautious.
Never show over-exuberance.
Never become crazy.
Never add to a losing position.
Never go on telling your neighbor about your open positions.
Never keep staring blue biz Channel.
Never repeat a mistake.
Never learn a lesson Twice. If do, then not Thrice.
Never become bullish or bearish. Remain a rational. Being bullish or bearish on markets is an emotion. If you want to trade. Get in Get out. If you are investor, make value investing your maxim.
Never spread rumours, never believe in rumours. It mostly benefits the originator.
Never be overconfidence. Because overconfidence kills. In markets, surely.
Never try to time the market. Time yourself. Time your entry, exit. Time your caliber. Time your trades. Time your profits. Time Your Time.
Never over-trade.
Never think, trading is a job. It’s a business.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Choosing your financial `Doctor`

Financial advice and advisors have acquired a whole new meaning and status within the investment world. The wide variety of investment options available for an investor has triggered this change. Amongst investors, there is definitely a renewed understanding of the importance of planning early and making the right investments with an optimal asset allocation; with a view to build the right corpus for every relevant need. Each significant market fall also reminds many investors that DIY (Do It Yourself) without sufficient experience and expertise can really hurt.
Concept & Relevance of Financial Advisors
In India, people are inherently fond of giving advice. However, there has been a definite sense of evolution in the way investments are treated over the years. There is a new breed of investment professionals, imparting sound knowledge on what investment pattern would suit which need and how one should adequately hedge risk in the pursuit for maximization of returns. With so many complex investment instruments on offer, and with volatility in markets across asset classes like never before, professional advice is increasing in relevance. Further, not all of us may have the competence or the time to take care of one`s investments.

The evolution of the financial advisor has also happened in the light of regulatory reforms, which have in a certain sense affected the livelihood of many advisors who essentially thrived on commissions. With the entry load on mutual funds gone and ULIP charges capped adequately, there are fewer, but, definitely more competent players who are typically paid for what value they deliver.
Evaluating a Financial Planner / Advisor
One needs to look at a range of factors before choosing a financial advisor:
Experience - Nothing can replace experience; a strong track record of managing portfolios over the years speaks volumes. Examine the `Wealth Manager`s` track record and annual investment return when selecting someone to handle your portfolio. Pick a manager who has a proven record of positive returns - Anyone can have one or two great years. But, consistency over many years is what counts.

Product Profile & Service Assessment - Scout for someone who offers holistic advice. This will help you shop for all your financial goals under one roof. Whilst you associate yourself with a financial planner, evaluate the post-sales service - renewal payment, redemptions, switches are going to be an integral part of managing your wealth. Going with an agent, could be costly, since you may not get appropriate help, post sales. It is better to be associated with a team which provides adequate support on these key issues.

Talk to existing clients - Before signing up for advice, check the reputation in the market. The simplest way to do this is to talk to existing clients. It is also appropriate to talk to clients who have had a long standing association with the organization. It will give a fair idea of how the financial advisors have been effective in enabling the client to meet their short-term or long-term goals by following the road map prescribed by their advisor. Evaluate various parameters such as effectiveness of advice, pro-activeness, transparency etc.. While understanding the performance, also find out about the performance in the years when the market did not do too well.

Fee Structure - Professional Financial advice does not come free - it never was. Financial advisors work on three types of remuneration models - a fee model, commission model and a transaction based model. A combination of the models could be used by a few advisors. Fee based model has seen a spurt in recent times, since the regulatory authorities are on a revolutionary spree to set right the unscrupulous practices in the financial world. A fee model seems appropriate while seeking financial advice, given that the advisor will have the client`s interest in mind and to a large extent the advice will be unbiased. One needs to keep in mind that a good advisor can deliver significant returns. Hence, focus on better performance than on lower fees. One should not end up being penny wise, pound foolish.
What`s in store?
Financial health is pertinent; and just like self-medication can cause havoc, investments made in an adhoc manner can wreck havoc on your life`s plans. Aligning your investments with your financial goals is extremely important - you need to understand various nuances of personal finance while managing investments. Contingency, emergency, health / life risk hedging are also important factors in financial planning. Although you may get it right many times, you may not be able to de-risk your investments at the right points. This could be really crucial, especially when markets hit a rough patch. If you do it all on your own, you may either get too conservative or too aggressive - both these scenarios are dangerous.

A financial advisor will help you to achieve optimal returns at certain risk-adjusted levels; he will also help you to optimize on your tax benefits. Furthermore, he will create a risk cover pattern, wherein your long term financial goals are achieved even in case of an eventuality. For a retail investor, optimizing on taxes and achieving personal goals may be the only nuance to consider. However, for a HNWI, asset allocation becomes a challenge, since over-diversification could become a challenge. An advisor plays the role of, `How much is too much?`. It becomes pertinent at such levels to maintain and grow your wealth by de-risking the portfolio at relevant levels.

Financial advice needs to be customized to each individual / family based on their needs, timelines, liquidity requirements, past investments, risk appetite etc., Hence, it becomes necessary to seek professional advice for managing your investments.
Keep in mind that not all advisors are experienced, competent or capable of providing the appropriate levels of service. Choosing a `Financial Advisor` is as important as choosing a doctor; a decision that calls for careful evaluation. Once you choose your advisor after a detailed evaluation, do give sufficient time to perform, even as you try and understand the rationale for the advice. Your advisor should help you build wealth in a disciplined and risk-managed manner. Don`t just go by best returns in the short-run - a market fall may just take it all away! In fact, the true strength of an advisor is demonstrated in difficult periods. So, go ahead and secure the future of yourself and your family.

MITUL SHAH

9879586722

The importance of financial literacy

A very old Chinese proverb says ``if you are planning for a year, sow rice; if you are planning for a decade, plant trees; if you are planning for a lifetime, educate people``. There could not be a statement truer than this… and it is truer when it comes to financial education or financial literacy.

If you are reading this, you most likely belong to the middle to upper middle class segment. Hence you would be having a bank account, an exposure to the financial services in some form or the other and maybe more than a nodding acquaintance with financial products beyond a basic bank account, a fixed deposit, EPF, gratuity and such like products which happen by themselves if you are employed.

We believe strongly in the merit of engaging the services of a financial planner or taking professional help for managing your money. At the same time, we also believe that even if you have a professional looking after your money, you as an investor need to understand your finances and the basic principles that govern the actions of people managing it.

The oft quoted `I want to make my money work for me` should not only be a fashionable phrase for you but something that you understand how. Sure if you invest/lend money, there is a return or interest paid to you for your sacrifice in parting with that money for a period of time. But beyond that, you need to understand how inflation and taxation play on this return and therefore how this makes some investments give you less than your capital!

The importance of insurance not as a tax saving instrument but to protect your loved ones and hence its inclusion in your asset portfolio needs to be appreciated.
With the universe of investment options expanding a basic knowledge of the different options is vital not only to understand the rationale behind your planner`s selection of investments but also to safeguard your interests.
MITUL SHAH
9879586722

Financial security comes from net worth, net worth from smart investing

For many generations we have believed what we own (i.e. items on which we are allowed to put our names) are our assets, and monies that we owe are our liabilities. It took Robert Kiyosaki to tell us that assets that put money in our bank are our real assets - equity shares, rental property, mutual funds, unit-linked plans etc. I like to make the distinction a little differently - the ``show off`` assets - house, car, beach shack, and the boring assets - like mutual funds or unit linked policies - the former is loved, most people do the latter grudgingly. What you need to remember is that many artistes died broke and top of the mind recall are - Marilyn Monroe, and Marlon Brando. You keep hearing stories about how Michael Jackson has no money to pay his lawyers. The descendants of the last king of India - Bahadur Shah Zafar and the descendants of the last king of Bengal are not exactly middle class. Far from it. If you see the list of Indian film stars, who either died a pauper or have made a mess of their wealth by not leaving a clear will is quite shocking. The list could go on, naming big sports figures, entertainers, entrepreneurs and many folks who accumulated it a few rupees at a time by hard work and thrift. All of them had too many of the ``show off`` assets, but perhaps none of the ``boring`` assets. Too many people have learned that making a fortune is the easy part. The difficult part is in managing it. What all this means is how much money you have is a function of how well you managed your money, nor really how much you earned. If money management skills are, equal how is it that the Forbes list of the richest people keeps changing every year If your money is not useful and available to you when you need it for yourself or your loved ones, money is useless. Your confidence to back answer your boss should come from your ``net worth statement``, not your ``next work`` that you are able to get. Let us see what we can do to ensure that the money that we earn creates security for us.

> Too many people I meet are Income rich and balance sheet poor: If you earn Rs 1, 500,000 a year, but spend Rs 1.503, 000, you are broke, worse off than the person who earns Rs 500, 000 but spends only Rs 450, 000. You may be income-statement rich, but you are asset poor. Not enough people are able to realize that the amount of money in the retirement or pension kitty and the amount of life insurance is a function of your CURRENT life style, not the lifestyle you had 5 years back. Financial security comes from being able to live off your assets - and not need the job by the time you are 45.

> Start learning about money - it is not a difficult task. Start taking interest in how credit cards work, how to live within a budget, mutual funds, unit linked plans, financial goal setting, making a will, etc. Managing money is not in any academic syllabus at any academic institution, but you still need to know it. So go ahead, and learn. More importantly, for the women who are reading this article please ensure that you learn about money and encourage your friends, colleagues, daughters, daughters in law, etc. to learn about money. Money is not a ``man`` thing as much as ``cooking`` is not a ``woman`` thing.

> Don`t confuse debt with wealth. If you buy Rs 8 million house with Rs 7.75 million mortgage, you are not worth Rs 8 million. You are Rs 7.75 million in debt. Last week when my broker bought a car, he did not borrow any portion of the Rs 14 lakhs that he needed to buy it. His logic was simple; many of the investments that he had made would yield him less than 15% p.a return - including his PPF. His logic was why should you borrow at a rate higher than the rate at which you lend? Most rich people do not borrow because they do not have money. They borrow because their assets are capable of earning much more than the rate at which they borrow. And as Robert Kiyosaki says in his book the rich buy the boring (my terminology) assets first and then use the income from these assets to buy the `luxuries` that we cannot live without.

> Get good advice: And then listen to them. A great portfolio manager manages my equity portfolio - and he keeps giving good results in all kinds of markets. My role in the good performance of my portfolio is simple - I let him be. Financial advisors like doctors are busy and they like involved and non-interfering clients. You may need a financial planner, a portfolio manager, and a banker. Or a simple mutual fund distributor. Once you have found a good advisor, trust her to perform.

> Retire gracefully: Plan for your retirement. Retirement is an amount of money, not an age. If you are a business owner, for instance, don`t assume you will be able to sell it for the ``right`` price when you are ready to retire. Keep shifting some money from ``business`` to the ``personal`` bucket of finances. Rather than put all your eggs in one basket, set aside a percentage of all earnings in conservative assets to help guarantee a secure retirement, no matter what happens to your other assets.

> Protect with life insurance. Is the item that people pay attention to only when approached by an agent. Life insurance is a tremendous tool to help achieve distribution goals, all generally income-tax-free. It puts tremendous amount of liquidity and gives peace of mind. I know men who have constantly told their wives ``use the life insurance money to pay off the mortgage if I were not around``. I would rather have guys telling their wives ``I have a life insurance policy and Saki is our financial planner. I trust her, and so can you. Ask her how to collect the insurance money and consultatively chose an investment option. Use the notes we made at the financial planning seminar we attended``. Ha, that will be the day. If you do all this, will your wealth give you security? Well there are no ``assured return`` schemes any more. You need to keep learning and trying. However, by addressing the above issues, you can dramatically increase the potential for turning the wealth you`ve achieved into long-term financial security for yourself and for your loved ones.

MITUL SHAH
9879586722

What good are tax-saving mutual funds?

Towards the end of every financial year, there`s always the mad rush for tax-saving avenues. As per Section 80CC of the Income Tax Act, one is eligible to get tax rebate on an investment of up to Rs 1 lakh (1.2 lakh from the next financial year) in any of the available tax-saving options. Historically, the popular tax-saving options used to be Provident Funds (PF), National Saving Certificates (NSC), Kisan Vikas Patra (KVP), etc. This trend has changed drastically in recent times especially with the emergence and success of Tax-saving mutual funds in India.

Tax-Saving mutual funds, also known as Equity Linked Savings Schemes (ELSS), are essentially mutual funds that invest in equity. The fund manager of an ELSS fund invests all (or most) of his funds in the equity market and hence returns will be based on the performance of the stock market. Therefore, a Tax-Saving fund not only provides tax benefit but also gives one the opportunity to explore the equity market. Also, among all tax saving options, it carries one of the lowest lock-in of three years. The NSC has a lock-in of 6 years, PF (15 years) and KVP (over 7 years). Recently, 5-year bank fixed deposits have also been recognized by the government as one of the tax saving options.

Currently, there are more than 35 Tax-Saving mutual funds in India to choose from and the performances of most such funds have been consistently good. For example, over the last 5 years, tax-planning funds have on an average delivered returns of around 15% per annum. And over the last year, the return is a very high percentage! The other tax-saving investment options like PF, NSC, KVP and Bank fixed deposits fetch around 7-9% return per annum. However, it is prudent not to get carried away by these numbers. The risk of losses is much higher in equity investments and more over in the case of all mutual funds, the fund`s historic performance is no guarantee for its future performance.

As far as the ELSS is concerned, these funds could be more volatile than normal equity funds. Due to the lock-in of three years, the fund managers have a longer term perspective and get greater room in making big sector bets. Hence, a higher volatility can be expected from these funds vis-a-vis pure equity funds. To avoid such volatility, one can chose the Systematic Investment Plans (SIP). Through SIP, one can invest a small amount every month. The biggest advantage of SIP is that one does not have to worry about the market. When the market is moving up, one is part of the upward journey. And if the market falls, one is buying stocks for less. Using an SIP, it is possible to enjoy the best of both worlds!

If you really want to reap the rewards of your tax saving investments, think beyond the lock-in period of three years. Over the long-term, returns from equities have always been greater than any other investments. So, what are you waiting for? Consult your Financial Advisor about the ELSS!

MITUL SHAH
9879586722

Highest NAV or marketing gimmick?

``No matter how skillful you are, you can`t invent a product advantage that doesn`t exist. And if you do, and it`s just a gimmick, it`s going to fall apart anyway`` - William Bernbach, advertising guru.

Recently, there have been several advertisements of products which guarantee highest value of NAV to investors. Such declarations appear as a relief to the layman who neither understands the intricacies of the stock market nor has the time to `Buy Low and Sell High`. The concept of protecting downside amidst market volatility is indeed quite interesting. However, the devil lies in the detail. Some of the important aspects of any investment product are the expected returns, investment horizon, expenses and of course, your risk profile. Let us see how most of these plans work -
Timing the Returns
Although, the stock markets in India have been delivering superb returns since 2004, the massive crash of ‐52.45% in 2008 did cause panic amongst the market players and left investors with colossal losses.

No wonder that the retail investors have become wary of the stock market volatility; hence, are increasingly looking at capital protection products. As a result, portfolio insurance strategies of Option Based Portfolio Insurance and Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance have garnered significance.  The Highest NAV Guarantee plan is based on the Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) model. According to this model, the fund would invest in fixed income type of securities in order to maintain a certain minimum unit value. When the fund value exceeds this floor value, the surplus is placed into stocks. With constant rebalancing of the portfolio, the aim of the fund manager is to not let the unit value fall below the base.

Similarly, the proceeds in Highest NAV guarantee plans would be dynamically invested in equity, fixed income and money markets instruments. However, in Highest NAV Guarantee plan, there is no specific asset allocation that the fund manager has to adhere to unlike a mutual fund or a Unit‐linked Insurance Policy (ULIP). Since Highest NAV Guarantee plans are a new product, there is no historical data to evaluate the performance of the said funds. As the policy guarantees you the highest NAV, a fund manager may follow a conservative approach and allocate your money into money market and fixed income instruments and ensure that you get the highest NAV without much trouble. At the beginning, the NAV is 10 and let`s say the fund has invested into equity. Suppose the stock market rises and NAV goes up to 12. As the fund has already made a gain of 20%, the fund manager has to maintain this NAV at least for next 6‐8 years. Consequently, the fund would be rebalanced into fixed income securities to ensure that the fund maintains the NAV of 12. Thus, even though the fund manager may fluctuate from equity to fixed income or money market, the returns may not be comparable to an equity diversified fund or a ULIP.

No Easy Exit

Insurance is ideally a long‐term investment product expected to offer protection to policy holder`s family in the event of an untimely death or disability. A Whole Life policy is typically designed for 15‐25 years. In the absence of the policyholder`s income, the major as well as minor expenses of the family should be compensated through the insurance cover. But the insurance component in Highest NAV Guarantee works merely as a supplementary portion to the entire plan as these plans provide limited cover and most of them offer guarantee at maturity after a period of 7‐10 years. Secondly, the highest NAV guarantee terminates past the grace period when you stop paying your premiums. The exit from the plan or partial withdrawals is possible only after three‐five years. Also, for partial withdrawals or surrenders which attract an exit charge of 0‐20%, this guarantee is not applicable. Thus, these plans do not offer immediate liquidity.
No Free Lunches
Now, consider the actual investible part. These plans have five types of charges as shown in the chart. The charges lie in the given range for products of different companies. The units are calculated after deduction of premium allocation charge. So the balance from premium received goes as an investment into the fund. Apart from initial charges, the mortality, policy administration charges and fund management charges are deducted every year from your fund. There is a fund management fee plus a charge for highest NAV guarantee to assure that you get highest NAV which would be deducted from your fund units. In totality, besides the premium allocation charge, you would end up paying from your fund approximately 2.50% per annum.  In the later years, the premium allocation charges may come down but other charges would remain.

Example

Assuming a person aged 35, pays a premium of Rs. 10,000 every year through an intermediary into the plan. Let`s say for a policy term of ten years, the maximum permissible sum assured is thirty times the premium which would be just Rs. 300,000 and the annual mortality charge would be approximately Rs. 500. The given table calculates your return considering the Case I (assuming minimum charges applicable), Case II (assuming maximum charges applicable) and Case III (assuming moderate charges).
Please note we have not considered the taxation part in the tabular calculation.

Condition
Case I
Case II
Case III
Monthly Income Account^
Monthly Income Plan*
Premium
10,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
10,000
The premium allocation charge
12%
20%
15%
0%
0%
Net amount
8800
8000
8500
10000
10000
Assuming NAV of 10, Units allocated
880
800
850
Not Applicable
1000
Annual charges priced in the NAV
Mortality and Policy Administration Charges
800
1220
1000
0
0
Fund Management and Highest NAV Guarantee Charges
100
185
125
0
200
At maturity
Highest NAV
20
12
15
Not Applicable
Not Applicable
Fund Value
17600
9600
12750
15869
17447
^The fund value is calculated at 8% for 6 years
*The fund value is calculated using average historical performance of 15 MIPs at 9.72% for 6 years
We have considered monthly income plans of mutual funds as they have lesser allocation, about 15‐25% to equity and Post Office ‐ Monthly Income Account (POMIA) in the table. The POMIA gives an interest at the rate of 8% which is paid monthly as a regular income avenue and is not cumulative in nature. At maturity, the deposit attracts a bonus as well. For simplicity, we have considered increase in value of deposit over six years. Also, we have taken into account the average historical performance of fifteen monthly income plans over five‐year period which comes to annualised 9.72%.  Even though the fund NAV would rise by 50% (as in Case III), the returns at the end of the period would be lower than that in a POMIA and a MIP. Despite the Highest NAV assurance and a 20% increase in NAV (as in Case II), after deducting all charges, you are actually negative on your investment. In fact, your fund value net of all charges should exceed almost 25% in the first year itself to get your capital back from the fund. Only if the fund NAV were to double (as in Case I), would the performance better an POMIA or MIP, even if not than the equity/balanced mutual funds or equity natured ULIPs.

Conclusion
Clearly, these products guarantee Highest NAV but they may not necessarily provide the highest returns, rather they come with high charges. The product may assure you of the highest value of NAV but the fund manager is restricted in terms of investment decisions and may not be able to optimize the returns from the fund. Investors who are risk‐averse and have a seven‐eight year horizon are better off with postal schemes or bank deposits which have no charges and provide certain fixed returns. For investors who prefer equity flavor in their investments, Monthly Income Plans of mutual funds are a good option. MIPs have an allocation of 10‐15% in equity with the remaining 80‐85% in fixed income securities. Also, the no entry load regime brings down the cost of your mutual fund investments to much lower than these plans. Besides this, to ensure that the family is adequately protected against unexpected and unfortunate events, individuals can go for a whole life term policy which offers a better sum assured value at minimal charges.

Idle money earning more!

Idle money never has worked better for you. Your deposits lying in your Savings Bank Account will work better for you today than they did yesterday. Effective Apr. 1, 2010. the RBI has issued an announcement by changing the terms of interest calculation for Savings Bank account deposits. The new method is a substantial departure from the old practice, whereby interest is calculated on the minimum balances held in these accounts from the 10th of each month to the last day of the same month.

In the older method, interest was calculated at 3.5%p.a on the minimum balance between the 10th and the last day of the month. However, effective April 1st this model has changed to interest payable on the `balance on a daily basis`.

This method of calculation is a paradigm shift from the conventional method of calculation that awarded the bank account holders with meager interest earnings.

The change in interest payable is as illustrated below:

New Interest Rate Computation
Date
Transaction
Amount
Balance
Old System
New System
Amount
Interest
Amount
Days
Interest
1st June
Opening Balance
12000



12000
1
1.15
2nd June
Deposit
25000
37000


37000
1
3.55
3rd June
Withdrawal
5000
32000


32000
5
15.35
8th June
Withdrawal
6000
26000


26000
2
4.98
10th June
Withdrawal
12000
14000


14000
3
4.02
13th June
Deposit
3000
17000


17000
5
8.15
18th June
Withdrawal
2500
14500


14500
8
11.12
26th June

4500
10000


10000
5
4.8
30th June
 TOTAL interest

10000
10000
29.17
 TOTAL
 30
53.12

If one were to go by the older method of interest calculated at 3.5% p.a on the minimum balance between the 10th and the last day of the month. The interest workings were calculated on the Rs 10,000 balance that was the minimum between the 10th and the 30th of the month.

However in the new system of calculation, interest is calculated on a daily basis thereby giving the depositor almost twice the amount of interest. With the interest amounts almost doubling it will provide a better cushion for the conservative investor who prefers the virtually risk free bank deposits to any other investments.

However in a rising interest regime; this move is more than what one could ask for- liquidity and higher interest. But don`t make this a reason to be lazy- Invest your money according to your goals and your time horizon. Keep 2-6 months expenses as emergency funds in a combination of Bank accounts and liquid funds. Don`t let that money be idle, even though it is better than yesterday.

The author is a managing director and chief financial planner at International Money Matters.